Britain will be free from the Covid pandemic if the current vaccines work as expected, expert says

Britain could officially be freed from the grips of the Covid crisis if the current vaccines work as expected against the Indian variant, one of the country’s top scientists suggested today. 

Professor Andrew Pollard, one of the main researchers behind the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, said the pandemic in the UK could be ‘over’ if the vaccines cut the risk of hospitalisation and death as well in the real world as analysis suggests.

Lab studies by Public Health England have found two doses of AstraZeneca or Pfizer’s jab provide a similar level of protection against symptomatic disease from the Indian variant as they do for the Kent version, which caused the country’s devastating second wave.

Because the vaccines were shown to be highly effective at stopping people falling ill with Covid in the first place, PHE said they are likely to be even better at preventing hospitalisation and deaths. 

Professor Pollard said that a few more weeks were needed to firm up this claim, but he added that, traditionally, vaccines offer ‘much, much higher’ protection against hospitalisation and death than mild infection. 

However, both Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s jabs were only 33 per cent effective at blocking symptoms of the Indian strain three weeks after one dose, compared to 50 per cent against the Kent variant. Officials say it highlights the importance of getting both injections. 

Professor Pollard told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘If the current generation of vaccines are able to stop people going into hospital, whilst there is still mild infections, people are getting the common cold with the virus, then the pandemic is over.

‘Because we can live with the virus, in fact we are going to have to live with the virus in one way or another, but it doesn’t matter if most people are kept out of hospital because then the NHS can continue to function and life will be back to normal. We just need a little bit more time to have certainty around this.’ 

Ministers say England is on track for all restrictions to be dropped as planned on June 21, despite fears the rapid spread of the Indian variant would jeopardise ‘freedom day’. 

Armed with the PHE evidence vaccines work against B.1.617.2, the boss of the UK’s Health Security Agency argued the prospect of all Covid restrictions being lifted next month was ‘looking good’. Health Secretary Matt Hancock also called the findings ‘groundbreaking’. 

But some scientists are not convinced by No10’s ever-growing optimism, saying May 17’s relaxation of lockdown measures may trigger a rapid spike in cases given that the Indian variant is ‘on the cusp’ of becoming dominant in England. 

Up to 70 per cent of all cases in the North West are now being caused by the Indian variant, and the mutant strain is on the cusp of becoming dominant nationwide. 

Professor Christina Pagel, a member of the Independent SAGE panel of scientists, said ministers should consider ‘rolling back step three of the roadmap’ if cases continue to rise this week. Department of Health figures show the number of positive tests has jumped by 11 per cent over the past seven days.

Hospitalisations and deaths across the UK are at their lowest levels since the crisis began, with just six fatalities a day and fewer than 100 hospital admissions, on average. For comparison, around 1,300 deaths were occurring every day at the peak of the second wave in January.

However, the number of infected patients occupying beds at the major NHS trust in Bolton — one of the country’s hotspots for the Indian variant — has continued to creep up over the past week.

There is no proof the Indian variant is more lethal than older strains of the coronavirus but data shows it is more transmissible than the Kent type, which triggered Britain’s devastating second wave before vaccines were rolled out. Experts believe B.1.617.2 is 30 per cent more infectious than B.1.1.7 — the name for the Kent strain. 

Professor Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, suggested the pandemic could be declared over in the UK if people are kept out of hospital by vaccines. He said: ‘The thing that makes this a pandemic is people going into hospital. 

‘And so what we really need to know, and we don’t have the data yet for certain, is how well both the vaccines are performing in preventing people from going into hospital.

‘And what we’ve seen so far in the pandemic is that protection from vaccines against hospitalisation and death is much, much higher than the protection against mild infection, which is what these tests are detecting.

‘So what I’m waiting for is the answer to that exam question, which is the critical one to understand how we should respond in the future to new variants, is to find out whether these infections that we’re starting to see a little bit with this current variant are completely uncoupled from hospitalisations and deaths.

‘But we just need a few more weeks to get more evidence around that.’

On whether booster vaccines will be needed, Professor Pollard said work was ongoing to make new vaccines in case they were needed — but it was not certain that they would be.

He urged people to have their second jab and said coronavirus will find the unvaccinated, adding that the Indian variant was able to spread ‘slightly better’ whether people have been vaccinated or not.

‘Of course this is the variant that’s around at the moment but future variants are going to get even better at doing that,’ Professor Pollard said.

‘That’s the evolution of this virus, that it’s going to find ways around immune responses to be able to spread a bit better.

‘And so that gives a really important public health message, which is that if you’re unvaccinated, then the virus will eventually find those individuals in the population who are unvaccinated, and of course if you’re over 50 and unvaccinated, you’re at much greater risk of severe disease.’ 

His comments came after experts at the Government’s world-renowned Porton Down research centre concluded that the current crop of jabs work against B.1.617.2.

Data revealed Pfizer’s vaccine was 88 per cent effective against the Indian variant in preventing symptoms after two doses, compared with 93 per cent against the Kent strain. AstraZeneca’s was given a figure of 60 per cent, compared with 66 per cent against the Kent variant.

Asked if people may think the AstraZeneca vaccine was not as good, Professor Pollard said: ‘Well I think in some ways we’re looking at the wrong exam question, because this is a question about mild infection and transmission.’

Other experts said the difference between the two jabs could be down to the fact that the rollout of second doses of AstraZeneca was later than that for Pfizer, and it takes longer to reach maximum effectiveness. Because it was easier to transport, the AstraZeneca jab was also given to older people who are most at risk of falling ill. 

But the PHE data, which was released to the public late on Saturday night, also showed the importance of having two doses.

Both vaccines were calculated to be 33 per cent effective against the Indian variant three weeks after just the first jab, compared with 50 per cent protection against the Kent variant. 

Professor Pagel, a mathematician and director of University College London’s clinical operational research unit, said PHE data also suggested the Indian variant was ‘growing twice as fast’ as the Kent strain. She tweeted: ‘No other variant even comes close.’

She also claimed the figures on vaccine efficacy were not as promising as billed, adding: ‘Even PHE don’t think it’s good news’. In light of the findings, the agency seemingly upgraded its risk assessment for the variant’s vaccine escape ability from amber to red.

And she added that the PHE data showed the Indian variant was ‘definitely’ dominant in the North West, making up around 70 per cent of all cases, and was ‘probably’ dominant in London and the South East. Data was not as clear for the South West, she added.

Professor Pagel tweeted: ‘Yes, two doses work almost as well against B.1.617.2 as they do against B.1.1.7. And in a country that had three weeks between doses, this would be less of an issue. But we are not that country.

‘We are doing 10-12 weeks between doses — now being reduced to eight weeks for over-50s. In the context of a rapidly growing variant… eight weeks is a long time.

‘We are a few months away from offering 2nd dose to all adults (August if we can accelerate timetable, September if we can’t). Once [the] large majority of adults are fully vaccinated, [we’ll be] in [a] much better position.

‘It’s what happens in the meantime that is worrying me. SAGE models from May 5 show a variant 40-50 per cent more transmissible than B.1.1.7 with no vaccine escape can strain hospitals as badly as January.’

She added: ‘The data do not support moving to step four of the roadmap unless the current risk assessment of B.1.617.2 reduces significantly.

‘If B.1.617.2 does not start looking less scary, we must wait until we have fully vaccinated more people. If cases keep going up next week — consistent with continued rapid growth of B.1.617.2 — we should consider rolling back step three of roadmap.’

However, Professor Pagel also added there was ‘good news’ regarding the variant. 

She said: ‘London growth of B.1.617.2 has been much flatter for past two weeks and cases not gone up much. This might be a sign that B.1.617.2 is not as scary as it seems — but it’s one of the few signs.

‘The other potentially good sign is that there are some authorities where B.1.617.2 is dominant but cases remain low…. but all the Local authorities with very high case rates have B.1.617.2 dominant. So [it’s a] complex picture.’ 

Professor Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge and a member of No10’s Nervtag advisory panel, claimed the PHE data showed ‘a single dose is not particularly protective’.

He told BBC Breakfast that was the ‘situation many adults find themselves in during a period of easing restrictions’, with only 43 per cent of adults — or 22.6million — now fully vaccinated. A record 556,951 Brits received their top-up jab on Saturday.

Around 72 per cent of over-18s — or 37.9million — have now had their first dose and twenty-somethings are set to be invited to book appointments within days as the rollout continues at pace. 

Professor Gupta added, however, that ‘even after the first dose, chances of severe illness and death are markedly reduced and almost close to zero on the second dose’.

He said he believed the Indian variant ‘does have a significant advantage in humans and it would explain what we’ve been seeing in India where people who have been vaccinated are getting infected, as well as people who were infected previously getting reinfected.

‘So, this is good evidence that the virus is adapting. It is something to worry about in the longer term because… we are opening up and I think that we need to seriously reconsider the pathway to full opening if we want to realise the benefits of vaccines fully.’

He said there were large sections of the UK population who are unvaccinated, ‘particularly young individuals who are going to be mixing’.

And Professor Gupta added that the virus was increasing in ‘proportionality, in terms of infection, so we really need to be very vigilant of this because, very quickly, it could run out of control’. 

It comes as Dominic Cummings has escalated his extraordinary assault on the government over coronavirus claiming ministers did not ‘understand’ herd immunity — and only switched to a ‘Plan B’ after being warned more than half a million people would die.

The former No10 chief launched another devastating swipe at Matt Hancock and the Cabinet Office for failing to grasp the implications of their own policy as the pandemic erupted.

Mr Cummings, who was at the heart of decision-making, said the original intention was to allow the virus to play out and achieve ‘herd immunity’ quickly to avoid a second peak that could overwhelm the NHS in winter.

But in a long Twitter thread he said it became apparent the strategy was ‘disastrously misconceived’ and a ‘Plan B had to be bodged amid utter chaos’.

The maverick adviser posted a chart from mid-March 2020 showing a 259,000 death toll as an ‘optimal single peak strategy’ – against a ‘do nothing’ option that could have meant 510,000 casualties.

A full lockdown was announced later that month, with significant curbs having stayed in place ever since as the government wrestled to keep infections down. The death toll on the main measure is just under 128,000.

The latest salvo from Mr Cummings comes as he prepares for an explosive evidence session with MPs on Wednesday.

He has already branded the Department of Health a ‘smoking’ ruin over its dismal efforts to procure PPE and ventilators, saying the vaccination drive has only been successful because it was taken out of the department’s hands.