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This latest modelling puts the chances at 40 percent, and the Met Office said the odds are “increasing with time”.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of seasonal to decadal prediction at the Met Office, said: “Assessing the increase in global temperature in the context of climate change refers to the long-term global average temperature, not to the averages for individual years or months.
“Nevertheless, a temporary exceedance of the 1.5-degree level may already be seen in the next few years.”
The Met Office’s Dr Leon Hermanson said: “These predictions provide a basis to alert governments and aid agencies to regional climate risks.”
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