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“The consequences would be economic retaliation by the EU, serious damage to its political relations with two closest allies, the US and EU, and instability for Northern Ireland.
“An expansive use of Article 16 would be a spectacular strategic blunder.”
Mr Spisak – who according to the Tony Blair Institute was previously a mandarin in the Foreign Office, where he worked on Brexit negotiations – added that by invoking the article, the Government would eventually be “boxed in” to two “hard choices”.
One would be not implementing the protocol at all, he said, or backing down to the EU, “having lost its leverage.”
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